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Die Rolle der Projektnummer im Suchstring

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
 

Cornelius Hirsch, Harald Oberhofer, Bilateral Trade Agreements and Trade Distortions in Agricultural Markets?

WIFO Working Papers, 2017, (531), 26 Seiten
Agricultural support levels are at a crossroad with reduced distortions in OECD countries and increasing support for agricultural producers in emerging economies over the last decades. This paper studies the determinants of distortions in the agricultural markets by putting a specific focus on the role of trade policy. Applying different dynamic panel data estimators and explicitly accounting for potential endogeneity of trade policy agreements, we find that an increase in the number of bilateral free trade agreements exhibits significant short- and long-run distortion reducing effects. By contrast, WTO's Uruguay Agreement on Agriculture has not been able to systematically contribute to a reduction in agriculture trade distortions. From a policy point of view our findings thus point to a lack of effectiveness of multilateral trade negotiations.
 
Online seit: 22.02.2017 0:00

Peter Holzer, Doppelte Submission (3. Versuch)

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
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Peter Holzer, Doppelte Submission (2. Versuch)

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
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Peter Holzer, Doppelte Submission

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
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Test #2116

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
23:47
 

test #2323 b

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
 

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WIFO Working Papers, 2017
 

Birgit Agnezy, Peter Holzer, Test #2104

WIFO Working Papers, 2017
 

Fritz Breuss, Would DSGE Models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

WIFO Working Papers, 2016, (530), 24 Seiten
DSGE (Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models are the common workhorse of modern macroeconomic theory. Whereas story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of DSGE models is only recently topical. In this study, we perform a post-mortem analysis of the predictive power of DSGE models in the case of Austria's recession in 2009. For this purpose, 8 DSGE models with different characteristics (small and large models, closed and open economy models, one and two-country models) were used. The initial hypothesis was that DSGE models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which implemented features of the causes of the global financial crisis (like financial frictions or interbank credit flows) could not only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the following severe recession in 2009. In comparison, non-DSGE methods like the ex-ante forecast with the Global Economic (Macro) Model of Oxford Economics and WIFO's expert forecasts performed not better than DSGE models in the crisis.
 
Online seit: 08.11.2016 0:00
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